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摩根大通预测：英格兰将夺本届世界杯冠军[文章来自:考试与评价 M}u/w4U!n+[A@drO6C]
City boffins figure it out ... England to win World Cup[文章版权 禁止转载:考试与评价 I1g2b@' *Ew6qr /|BFroG]
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England will finally win the World Cup after 44 years of pain if City boffins are to be believed.
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European champions Spain will be runners-up with the Netherlands winning the third place play-off, according to J.P. Morgan quantitative analysts who issued their findings on Tuesday ahead of the World Cup (June 11-July 11) kick-off.
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They predict world number one team Brazil will fall short in South Africa because of a tougher route through to the final than their main rivals.
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The quantitative analysts at J.P.Morgan used information such as FIFA ranking, historical results and its J.P.Morgan Team Strength Indicator to come up with a mathematical model to predict match results, they explained.
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However, they warned "this report should be taken with a pinch of salt" and that it is an exercise to "light-heartedly explain quantitative techniques and demystify the typical quant framework."
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The analysts usually use these kind of mathematical models to help predict stock market winners with millions of dollars hanging on their calculations.
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England last won football's biggest prize in 1966 when the Beatles topped the charts with Yellow Submarine and Harold Wilson was Prime Minister.
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In the latest official FIFA rankings, England were in eighth position and Spain were second.
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英国的金融业分析人士日前做出预测，英格兰足球队在历经44年的磨难后，将夺本届世界杯的冠军。
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今年的世界杯足球赛将于6月11日至7月11日举行。摩根大通公司的数量分析专家于本周二发布预测结果称，欧洲冠军西班牙队将获得本届世界杯的亚军，荷兰队将获季军。
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据预测，世界排名第一的巴西队在南非世界杯上恐怕无缘冠军，因为与他们的主要竞争对手相比，巴西队晋级决赛的道路更为艰难。
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据介绍，摩根大通公司的数量分析专家通过分析国际足联排名、历史战绩以及摩根大通球队实力指数等信息，得出了一个用来预测比赛结果的数学模型。
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但他们同时提醒称，“大家应带有保留地看待这一预测”，这是“用通俗的方式解释数量分析法，让数量分析框架浅显化”的一次尝试。
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分析人士通常使用这类数学模型来帮助预测股市赢家，他们的计算结果常常关系到数百万美元的资金运作。
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英格兰队上一次捧走大力神杯还是在1966年。当年，披头士乐队的专辑《黄色潜水艇》横扫各音乐排行榜，英国的当政首相还是哈罗德•威尔逊。
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在国际足联最新排名中，英格兰队位居第八，西班牙队位居第二。
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